Assumptions are important.
We’re always working with incomplete, inaccurate, and inconsistent information.
We need to make assumptions to function. As I mentioned in my Making Sense blog post, we all have our own set of cognitive biases – and our own set of assumptions.
We know we’re making assumptions all of the time. But not all assumptions are equal – some are riskier than others. We need to be aware when we’re making assumptions and work out what we’ll do about them.
What we do with these assumptions is what matters, especially the risky ones.
The riskiest ones are those that if we don’t test them and find out what the reality is now, they’ll catch us out sooner or later. Especially when we rely on them to be true, and base key decisions on that false reality. This is where first principles thinking is so critical.
For clarity, we’re starting with assumptions here. An assumption is something we believe without strong evidence. Or, as the Oxford Learner’s Dictionary says, “a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof”.
Testing Your Assumptions
An assumption can be investigated without the need to construct a testable hypothesis and experiment. An assumption is a foundational belief, and can usually be tested with some simple research to find out what is true.
A hypothesis generally puts forward an argument and is more predictive. A good hypothesis can also be tested by an experiment, and is falsifiable. I’ll talk about turning key assumptions into a hypothesis to test with an experiment in a future post – but let’s keep it simple to start.
There are different ways to rate and prioritise the assumptions you’ll test, but my simplest recommendation is to test the highest risk ones first – and don’t make any key decisions based on those assumptions until you’ve tested it.
A basic risk matrix is a useful way to give your assumption a risk rating. If there’s a low likelihood the assumption is false, and the impact of it being false is also low, the overall rating is Low. If there’s a high likelihood of it being false, and the impact is high, the overall rating is High.
It can also be useful to categorise your assumptions. I like the method used in Testing Business Ideas by David Bland and Alex Osterwalder because it’s simple and brings in the three lenses of desirability, viability, or feasibility.
In my Agile Ways of Working blog post, I recommended you review your assumptions as part of your retro in each Sprint Review & Plan session. It needs to be a regular part of your workflow, not done once and never looked at again. Testing your riskiest assumptions needs to be part of every sprint.
Tracking Your Assumptions
The Dynamic4 Assumption Log is a simple way to track your assumptions. It’s part of the Dynamic4 RAID Log. RAID is Risk, Assumption, Issue, and Decision.
I’ve been using variations of this log for over 20 years and modified it from the traditional project/program management version to identify, test, and track key aspects of projects and organisations that need good management and governance.
The purpose of the assumption log is to keep track of the assumptions we’re making, what we’ve done to test them, and what we’ve learnt. Has your assumption been verified or falsified?
Download the free Dynamic4 RAID Log template and let’s put it in action.
Take Action with Your Assumptions Log
I strongly recommend keeping track of your assumptions. Not just the assumptions you’re making, but what you’ve done or are doing to test them.
The first step is to identify the assumptions. How do you spot your assumptions?
If you hear yourself say or think the words “it should”, “I think”, “I hope”, or other similar phrases, these are little flags that you’ve probably just made an assumption.
Remember, an assumption is something we believe without strong evidence.
List. Start by making a list of your assumptions in the first column of your spreadsheet – each assumption in its own row.
Rate. In the second column, give each assumption a risk rating of High, Medium, or Low.
Categorise. In the next column, categorise the type of assumption. Is the assumption about desirability, viability, or feasibility?
Method. In the next column, how will you test that assumption?
Test your riskiest assumptions first – and don’t make any key decisions based on those assumptions until you’ve tested them.
Solve Problems That Matter
This is an excerpt from my book Solve Problems That Matter, where I go into a lot more detail on all of the things I’ve covered in this post… and plenty more.
It’s a playbook with actions and worksheets to help you take a human-centred design and living systems approach to design, build, and launch your idea. Ideas that customers love, make money, and do great things for people and our planet… all while increasing wellbeing.
Let’s Collaborate
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